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Will Donald Trump become President?

Back in May I said that Donald Trump will be President. It’s now a month out from the election, and I’m not entirely sure he’s going to win. He might. He might not. It’s close.

I think he’s said too many things that have alienated too many people, but the fact it’s still too close to call suggests that there’s still a lot of people that continue to support him.

Those who already supported him are unlikely to see anything that will make them change their mind and support Clinton. Those who already supported Clinton are going to continue finding reasons to support her.

Maybe nothing will change. Maybe he’ll still win by a landslide. I don’t know. No one does. Do you?

What do you think the result will be, and why do you think that?


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  • Damien

    IMHO
    I don’t think that he will win, and I don’t believe the contest will be close. Fortunately, he is a little too extreme and transparent in not being able to hide some of his deep rooted ways of thinking, to convince the majority that he is “The Man”. Not that she should win, but he will lose.

    Damien

  • David Gould

    It is not close at the moment. He is 5.5 points down in an average of the polls. Obama easily beat Romney, winning by 3.9 per cent. Even worse for Trump, he is losing support from the GOP machine, which means that coordinated get-out-the-vote will effectively not exist. Given that the Clinton ground game efforts are extensive, this could increase the margin by 1 or 2 points, particularly in key states. Can Trump win? Sure. But it is a small chance – around 20%, and perhaps less, depending on which kind of model that is being used.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

  • I agree that based on this snapshot of reality today, Trump will not win the US election. But then, based on a snapshot of reality a year ago, there was little chance he would even win the Republican nomination. There’s a lot that can still happen in the next 3 weeks, and discounting Trump’s abilities as a master persuader would be a mistake, considering how far he’s come to get to this point.

  • David Gould

    Except Trump does not have the abilities of a master persuader …

    And the snapshot of reality a year ago at RCP showed Trump way ahead in the polls …

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html?utm_source=hootsuite#polls

    It was the pundits who got it wrong – the pollsters got it right.

    • I hope that the result of this election helps you understand that you were wrong, they were wrong, and I was right. You should think about that. 🙂

  • Jim Cranky

    Will be close. At least The Don, will be willing to talk to world leaders like Putin, whereas Billary wants to Nuke him! WTF? Trump is NOT a politician. He should have run as an independent and not a Republican! Usually 2 term POTUS’s will change parties every 2nd election, or so, so Donald might just scrape in. Depends on how MANY turn up to vote also. It’s usually just over 50% of the eligible!

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